Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for EMNATI-22 in Madagascar from 16 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC to 19 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for EMNATI-22

in Madagascar

19 Feb 2022 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000175-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	2.2 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	204 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (22 Feb 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 21 Feb 2022 18:00 - 22 Feb 2022 18:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	194 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	204 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

194 km/h Current Max.

Up to 4.9 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	176	1.3 million	No people	Mauritius
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	185	2.1 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	167	10.4 million	80 thousand	Madagascar
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	148	14.9 million	220 thousand	Madagascar
5	18 Feb 2022 12:00	176	17.7 million	2.3 million	Madagascar
6	19 Feb 2022 00:00	157	19.1 million	2.9 million	Madagascar
7	19 Feb 2022 12:00	167	16.2 million	3.2 million	Madagascar
8	19 Feb 2022 18:00	194	20.2 million	4.9 million	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-14.1, 68.4
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.2, 67.8
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.9, 64.2
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.4, 63
5	18 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-14.4, 61.3
6	19 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16, 59.5
7	19 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16.4, 58.1
8	19 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 2	157	no people	460000 people	-16.9, 57.1
8	20 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 2	176	no people	890000 people	-17.6, 55.6
8	20 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 3	194	no people	1.5 million people	-18.1, 54.2
8	21 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	9.1 million people	-18.6, 52.7
8	21 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 3	194	3.5 million people	16.5 million people	-19.3, 51.1
8	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 1	148	4.4 million people	16.8 million people	-21.3, 47.7	Madagascar
8	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	4.5 million people	-24, 44.4	Madagascar
8	24 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-27, 41.4

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Toamasina	Madagascar
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar
Toliara	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Mananjary	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	27000 people
Ambositra	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	30000 people
Sahasinaka	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	-
Manakara	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	35000 people
Fianarantsoa	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	160000 people
Ihosy	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	17000 people
Betroka	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Atsinanana	ILK	10	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Mahanoro	VVB	5	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4400
Mananjary	MNJ	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Manakara Sud	WVK	10	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Fianarantsoa	WFI	1115	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Ambalavao		972	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3600
Ihosy	IHO	762	Civ.	Unpaved	No	5400
Betioky	BKU	unknown				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Mahanoro	MGVVB	Madagascar
Mananjary	MGMNJ	Madagascar
Manakara	MGWVK	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in Ambahy, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 22 Feb 2022 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (98 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 19 Feb 2022 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.6
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambohitsara	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 11:00	Nosy-Varika	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Mahela	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Andranomahitsy	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 11:00	Anasindrano	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 10:00	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 20:00	Savana	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 20:00	Ankarimbary	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Mananjary	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 10:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 19:00	Mangatsiatra	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 19:00	Manakara	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 09:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 16:00	Marohita	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 16:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 07:00	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 17:00	Tataho	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 16:00	Itenina	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 02:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Manombo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Tulear	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Mahanoro	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 16:00	Anakitaina	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Antseranambe	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Belalanda	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 23:00	Farafangana	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 02:00	Maintinandry	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 04:00	Ambohidara	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Ampalaza	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 21:00	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 21:00	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 02:00	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 06:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Amboboka	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 03:00	Ambodiharina	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Tanilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 19:00	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 06:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 23:00	Tsivala	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Anakao	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Soalara	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 02:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Androrangambo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Manambotra	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 02:00	Seranandavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 17:00	Pakapakaina	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 22:00	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Vatomirindry	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Ambanihazo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Antsotso Avaratra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 05:00	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.